November 13, 2011 - "Preseason" Ends November 30th
"Regular season" forecasting begins on December 1st, when our collective forecasts will start to receive official scores from the tournament's sponsor, IARPA. Your hard work during the warm-up phase will help you, and the Good Judgment Team as a whole, to perform better in the regular-season tournament. But, the rewards don't stop there. Those who have been most successful in the preseason will receive special recognition on the leaderboards (and a surprise bonus that will be announced in early December). Best of luck to all forecasters in the closing weeks of the preseason.
October 31, 2011 - Leaderboard Display Issue
The Leaderboard tab is not displaying correctly for those using Internet Explorer. We have identified the source of the problem and expect to have the leaderboard display fixed soon. Thanks for your patience.
October 30, 2011 - Another Round of Waiting List Participants Will Be Admitted Soon
If you are on the waiting list for the Good Judgment Project, you can expect to hear from us sometime in the first week of November about admission to the project. Any waiting list participant who has not received an e-mail from us by Friday, November 4th should send a message to admin@goodjudgment.info for instructions about becoming an active forecaster.
If you know someone who might be interested in becoming a forecaster, please encourage him or her to preregister ASAP at www.goodjudgment.info. It is likely that we will not be admitting any more forecasters to the project for several months after the November group is admitted.
October 18, 2011 (updated October 30, 2011) - Leaderboards Are Up
Check your forecasting website for the new Leaderboard tab to see which forecasters have had the most success with the closed questions to date. And keep an eye on your inbox: we'll be e-mailing each forecaster his or her score, with information to put that score in context, very soon. Going forward, the Leaderboard tab will be updated regularly as additional questions close.
[OCTOBER 30TH NOTE: We apologize for the delay in e-mailing initial scores to forecasters. These will be sent as soon as a scoring algorithm issue is resolved. That should occur within the week. The algorithm correction will affect the leaderboards that have been posted.]
October 3, 2011 - New Forecasting Questions Have Posted
"Regular season" forecasting begins on December 1st, when our collective forecasts will start to receive official scores from the tournament's sponsor, IARPA. Your hard work during the warm-up phase will help you, and the Good Judgment Team as a whole, to perform better in the regular-season tournament. But, the rewards don't stop there. Those who have been most successful in the preseason will receive special recognition on the leaderboards (and a surprise bonus that will be announced in early December). Best of luck to all forecasters in the closing weeks of the preseason.
October 31, 2011 - Leaderboard Display Issue
The Leaderboard tab is not displaying correctly for those using Internet Explorer. We have identified the source of the problem and expect to have the leaderboard display fixed soon. Thanks for your patience.
October 30, 2011 - Another Round of Waiting List Participants Will Be Admitted Soon
If you are on the waiting list for the Good Judgment Project, you can expect to hear from us sometime in the first week of November about admission to the project. Any waiting list participant who has not received an e-mail from us by Friday, November 4th should send a message to admin@goodjudgment.info for instructions about becoming an active forecaster.
If you know someone who might be interested in becoming a forecaster, please encourage him or her to preregister ASAP at www.goodjudgment.info. It is likely that we will not be admitting any more forecasters to the project for several months after the November group is admitted.
October 18, 2011 (updated October 30, 2011) - Leaderboards Are Up
Check your forecasting website for the new Leaderboard tab to see which forecasters have had the most success with the closed questions to date. And keep an eye on your inbox: we'll be e-mailing each forecaster his or her score, with information to put that score in context, very soon. Going forward, the Leaderboard tab will be updated regularly as additional questions close.
[OCTOBER 30TH NOTE: We apologize for the delay in e-mailing initial scores to forecasters. These will be sent as soon as a scoring algorithm issue is resolved. That should occur within the week. The algorithm correction will affect the leaderboards that have been posted.]
October 3, 2011 - New Forecasting Questions Have Posted
September 29, 2011 - Good News for Waiting List
We anticipate that everyone on the waiting list will be offered an opportunity to complete Stage 2 registration after October 1, 2011. Please encourage others who might be interested to sign up ASAP. For administrative simplicity, we will be admitting new forecasters in groups, rather than by rolling admissions. After the admissions in early October, it will likely be at least a month before we admit any new forecasters.
September 18, 2011 - Waiting List Updates - and Participation Reminders for Existing Forecasters
We will review the existing forecaster population as of October 1, 2011. Those who have not completed their assigned training exercises and/or have not logged in to their forecasting website will be dropped from the team for nonparticipation. (We are not heartless - those who have valid reasons for nonparticipation will be given an opportunity to continue with the project.)
August 22, 2011
August 3, 2011 - Welcome New Recruits
If you've just joined the project at our pre-registration site (www.goodjudgment.info), you should be receiving an e-mail within the next few days with a link to complete the registration process and become a member of the Good Judgment Team. Thanks for your interest!
August 2, 2011 - Final Registration Begins
We hope you're as excited as we are about having this study finally begin. And we look forward to what we hope will be a long and productive mutual exploration of the frontiers of forecasting accuracy!
If you're not already pre-registered to participate in the forecasting tournament, go to www.goodjudgment.info to sign up. We're still accepting new forecasters.
July 27, 2011 - Attention All Pre-Registered Forecasters
The Good Judgment Project will officially begin soliciting forecasts from participants on September 1, 2011. Watch your inbox for an e-mail soon with more details, including info on how to setup your user id and password. Meanwhile, project update info will continue to be available on this blog.
If you're not already pre-registered to participate in the forecasting tournament, go to www.goodjudgment.info to sign up. We're still accepting new forecasters.
